Setting Realistic Expectations: The “New” College Admissions Reality

Feb 25

The college admissions landscape has changed more in the past five years than in the previous decade. Yet, many families still operate under outdated assumptions, leading to unrealistic expectations about where their student will be admitted and what it takes to get there.

What Has Changed?

Admissions has never been more competitive at top colleges. Many schools now reject students with near-perfect GPAs and test scores due to overwhelming applicant pools.
High school GPA and course rigor remain the #1 factor in admissions decisions. Colleges prioritize students who have challenged themselves academically, even over strong extracurriculars.
National SAT/ACT scores are at historic lows, with the ACT average now sitting at 19.4—the lowest since the early 1970s.
Many families overestimate their student’s chances at highly selective schools while overlooking great-fit institutions where they could thrive.

What Families Need to Adjust For:

A “good” GPA is not the same at every school. A 4.0 at one high school may not carry the same weight as a 3.7 at a school with rigorous coursework.
“Test-optional” does not mean “easier.” If applying without scores, a student’s application must stand out in every other way (GPA, rigor, essays, activities, recommendations).
Acceptance rates at top 100-200 schools are dropping. More students apply to prestigious schools without a true understanding of their competitiveness.
A balanced college list is critical. Every student should apply to schools across a range of selectivity, including at least two “likely” schools where they’d be happy to attend.

How to Set a Smart Strategy?

📌 Research college acceptance rates carefully—if a school admits 10-20% of applicants, it’s a reach for everyone, no matter how strong their profile is.
📌 Build a balanced college list that includes reach, target, and likely schools.
📌 Understand how test scores fit into the picture—while test-optional policies exist, a strong score can help, not hurt.
📌 Adjust expectations based on real admissions data, not hearsay from other families or outdated assumptions.

The bottom line? Admissions isn’t “unfair” or unpredictable—it’s just more competitive than ever. Families who take the time to understand these changes and adjust their expectations accordingly will be in the best position for success.